Ngokutsho kwengxelo yophando ye-CICC, ukususela kwikota yesibini, iingxaki zokubonelela ngengozi enxulumene neRashiya ne-Ukraine ziye zanqunyanyiswa, iYurophu kunye ne-United States ziye zangena kwinkqubo "yokunyuka kwexabiso lenzala", kwaye imfuno kwamanye amashishini aphesheya sele iqalile. ukuba buthathaka.Ngelo xesha, ukusetyenziswa kwasekhaya, ukuvelisa kunye nemisebenzi yokwakha iye yaphazanyiswa ngubhubhane., amaxabiso esinyithi angenayo i-ferrous ehla.Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, imfuno kwiziseko zophuhliso zaseChina kunye namacandelo okwakha anokuphucula, kodwa kunzima ukuphelisa ubuthathaka bemfuno yangaphandle.Ukwehla kokukhula kwemfuno yehlabathi kunokukhokelela ekutshintsheni okuhla kwexabiso lesinyithi esisisiseko.Nangona kunjalo, kwixesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide, utshintsho lwamandla luya kuqhubeka lufaka isandla kwimfuno eyongeziweyo yeentsimbi ezingenayo i-ferrous.
I-CICC ikholelwa ukuba ingqwalasela eyongezelelweyo kufuneka ihlawulwe kwisiphumo sokunyuka kweqondo lenzala kumazwe aphesheya kwixabiso lentengo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, into ebalulekileyo ekugwebeni ukuba uqoqosho lwaphesheya luya kuwela "kwi-stagflation" kunyaka ozayo okanye nakwixesha elizayo kunye ixesha loxinzelelo lwemfuno.Kwimarike yasekhaya, nangona imfuno yokugqitywa kwe-real estate ingaphucuka kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kuthathelwa ingqalelo ukuba izinga lokukhula kwezindlu ezintsha liqala e-China liye lehla ngokukhawuleza ukususela ngo-2020, imfuno yokugqitywa kwe-real estate ingajika ibe yimbi. 2023, kwaye imbonakalo kunzima ukuyithetha ukuba nethemba.Ukongeza, imingcipheko yecala lonikezelo lwehlabathi ayizange ithobe, njengeziganeko ze-geopolitical, ukwanda kwemiqobo yorhwebo, kunye nokunyuka kokhuseleko lwezibonelelo, kodwa ukuba nokwenzeka kweemeko ezigqithisileyo kuncitshisiwe, kwaye impembelelo kwizinto ezisisiseko zempahla nazo zinokuthi zibe buthathaka kancinci.Ezi ngqwalasela zexesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide zinokuthi zibe nefuthe ekulindelweni kweemarike kunye neendlela zexabiso kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.
Ngokubhekiselele kubhedu, i-CICC ikholelwa ukuba ngokubhekiselele kwi-balance sheet ye-copper kunye ne-balance balance sheet, iziko lexabiso lobhedu livame ukuhla kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.Ukujonga unikezelo oluqinileyo lwemigodi entsha yobhedu, uluhlu olusezantsi lwamaxabiso obhedu luya kuhlala lugcina ubhedu lweprimiyamu malunga ne-30% ngokumalunga neendleko zemali zemigodi yobhedu, umsantsa phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno uye wancipha, kwaye amaxabiso asesenokwehla. kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.Ngokumalunga ne-aluminium, inkxaso yeendleko iyasebenza, kodwa ukunyuka kwexabiso kunokunciphisa kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.Phakathi kwazo, ukuphindaphindwa kwamaxabiso e-aluminiyam kuya kutsalwa phantsi zizinto zombini zokubonelela kunye nemfuno.Kwelinye icala, ukwanda kwemveliso yaseTshayina kunye nolindelo lokuqalisa kwakhona kwemveliso kunokucinezela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, nangona kulindeleke ukuba imisebenzi yokwakha yaseChina inokunyuka kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.Ukubuyela umva kuya kukhokelela kwiziseko ezingcono, kodwa imbonakalo yokugqitywa kunye nemfuno yokwakha kunyaka ozayo ayinathemba ekuhambeni kwexesha.Ngokubhekiselele kwimingcipheko yokubonelela, nangona imingcipheko iqhubeka ikhona, impembelelo enokwenzeka ilinganiselwe: Okokuqala, ukuba nokwenzeka kweRUSAL ukunciphisa imveliso iphantsi, kwaye nangona kusekho umngcipheko wokunciphisa imveliso eYurophu, ixabiso lilonke linokuba liphantsi. kunoko ekupheleni konyaka ophelileyo.Ukuncitshiswa kwemveliso egxininisiweyo kuncitshiswe kakhulu, kwaye impembelelo kwizinto ezisisiseko nazo zithande ukuba buthathaka.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-01-2022