Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022, bekukho iziphazamiso ezininzi ezisisiseko kunye nezinkulu.Ngaphantsi kwe-resonance yezinto ezininzi, i-Aluminiyam yaseShanghai yaphuma kwimarike ye-V eguqulweyo.Ngokubanzi, umkhwa kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ungahlulwa ube ngamanqanaba amabini.Inqanaba lokuqala lisuka ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya kwiintsuku ezilishumi zokuqala zikaMatshi.Ubonelelo lwangaphakathi luqinile ngenxa yezithintelo zemveliso yokhuselo lokusingqongileyo kwiiOlimpiki zaseBusika kunye nobhubhane waseBaise.Ngaphesheya kolwandleababoneleli beprofayili ye-aluminiumiye yachatshazelwa kakhulu lungquzulwano oluphakathi kweRashiya neUkraine.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhathazeka malunga nokunciphisa imveliso eYurophu kuye kwanda, kwaye ngakolunye uhlangothi, iziko leendleko liye lanyuka ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso amandla kumxholo wengxabano.Ifakwe kwi-drive ye-nickel yaseLondon ekuqaleni kuka-Matshi, i-Aluminiyam yase-Shanghai iqhubekile ukunyuka ukususela ekuqaleni konyaka, ifikelela kwincopho ye-24,255 yuan / ton, ukuphakama kweenyanga ezine ezinesiqingatha.Nangona kunjalo, ukususela ekupheleni kuka-Matshi, nangona ingene kwixesha eliqhelekileyo lemfuno yemfuno, phantsi kwempembelelo yokulawula ubhubhane kwiindawo ezininzi, ukulindela ukubuyiswa okubonakalayo kwimfuno akuzange kwenzeke, kwaye uxinzelelo kwicala lokubonelela luye lwavela ngokuthe ngcembe.Umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali we-Fed waqhubeka uqina, kwaye iinkxalabo zemarike malunga nokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi zibeka uxinzelelo olubalulekileyo kwixabiso le-aluminium.
Icala lokubonelela linciphisa imveliso kwaye liqalise kwakhona imveliso, ukunyuka okunyukayo kuguqukela kuxinzelelo oluphantsi
I abavelisi beprofayili ye-aluminiumkwicala laseChina liye lachatshazelwa sisiganeko sokunciphisa imveliso kwikota yokuqala.Ekuqaleni konyaka, imveliso yayinqongophele ngenxa yeeOlimpiki zaseBusika, kwaye ukuncitshiswa okukhulu kwemveliso yealumina kwicala lezinto ezikrwada nako kwacinezelwa.NgoFebruwari, ubhubhani waseGuangxi ukhokelele ekwandiseni ukuncitshiswa kwemveliso ye-electrolytic aluminium e-Baise.Ummandla we-Baise yenye yezona ndawo ziphambili zokuvelisa i-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic e-China.Ubhubhani wenze ukuba imarike ikhathazeke malunga nokubonelela.Ukususela ekupheleni kukaFebruwari ukuya kuMatshi, echatshazelwa yingxabano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine, icala lokubonelela phesheya laliqinile, kwaye imarike yaqala ukurhweba ukuba iRusal yachatshazelwa yizohlwayo kunye nethuba lokunciphisa imveliso ekhuthazwa yindleko ephezulu yamandla eYurophu.Ngaphantsi kwempembelelo yezinto ezininzi zangaphakathi nangaphandle, ukusebenza kwe-aluminium kwikota yokuqala kuye kwahlala kunzima, kwaye amaxabiso e-aluminium afumene ukunyuka okuphezulu.
Ukususela kwikota yesibini, ukusebenza kwecala lokubonelela litshintshile.Umda wemveliso yeeOlimpiki zaseBusika kunye neempembelelo zesifo se-Baise ziphelile.Icala lokubonelela liye laqala ngokuthe ngcembe imveliso, kwaye ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwemveliso eYunnan kubonise iimpawu zokukhawuleza.Ekulandeleni, njengoko umthamo omtsha wokuvelisa uqhubeka ukufakwa kwimveliso, i-electrolytic aluminium Production iyanda ngokuthe ngcembe.Nangona icala lokubonelela kwamanye amazwe lihlala lichaphazeleka yingxaki yamandla, ukucuthwa kwemveliso eYurophu kugxininiswe kakhulu kwikota yesine ye-2021 kunye nekota yokuqala ye-2022, kwaye akuyi kubakho ukunciphisa kwemveliso entsha kwixesha elizayo.Ngoko ke, ukususela kwikota yesibini, inkxaso eziswa kwicala lokubonelela phesheya iya kuqalisa Ukuncipha, kwaye ngokuqhubekayo ukukhutshwa kwe-electrolytic yasekhaya ye-aluminium umthamo wokuvelisa, uxinzelelo kumaxabiso e-aluminium ukusuka ekuboneleleni okwandisiweyo kuye kwavela ngokuthe ngcembe.
Ixesha eliphakamileyo lesiqhelo lonyaka lathintelwa ngubhubhane, kwaye imfuno kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka yahlala ibuthathaka.
Nangona imfuno ekuqaleni konyaka yayibuthathaka ngenxa yezinto ezifana nedatha engalunganga ye-real estate kunye nemfuno ye-off-season, imarike yayinolindelo oluqinileyo kwixesha eliphakamileyo lemfuno, elixhasa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-aluminium.Nangona kunjalo, ukuqhambuka kweShanghai kwaqala ngoMatshi, kwaye kwavela uqhambuko kwiindawo ezininzi zelizwe.Uthintelo nolawulo lobhubhane luthintele uthutho kunye nolwakhiwo olusezantsi.Ngaphezu koko, ngenxa yobude bexesha elide, lonke ixesha leemfuno eziphakamileyo lichaphazeleka ngubhubhane, kwaye iimpawu zexesha eliphezulu azizange zivele.
Nangona ngasekupheleni kwalo bhubhani, ilizwe liye lazisa ngokulandelelana imigaqo-nkqubo encomekayo ukuvuselela ukuphinda kusetyenziswe ukusetyenziswa emva kwalo bhubhani, nto leyo ethe yomeleza ukuzithemba kwemarike ekubuyiseni imfuno kunye nokonyusa kwamaxabiso e-aluminiyam.Nangona kunjalo, ngokwembono yokusebenza kwangempela, nangona ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium ezantsi ngoJuni kuye kwaphuculwa xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elidlulileyo, ukuphuculwa akubonakali, kwaye ukusebenza kwe-real estate kuye kwaba nzima, okuye kwatsala ukubuyiswa kwemfuno. .Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokulindela okunamandla kunye nenyaniso ebuthathaka, kunzima ukuxhasa ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso e-aluminium.Ukongeza, njengoko ixesha lokuphumla lisondela, imfuno ayinakuphucuka kakhulu.
Uluhlu lwe-aluminium e-Shanghai naseLondon luyaqhubeka nokuhla, kwaye kukho inkxaso ethile engaphantsi kwamaxabiso e-aluminium
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka, i-inventory ye-aluminium eLondon yayikwimeko yokuncipha ngokupheleleyo, kwaye iphinde yaphinda yaphinda yaphinda yaphinda yahlala ixesha elithile, kodwa ukuhla ngokubanzi akukatshintshi.Uluhlu lwe-aluminium eLondon luye lwehla ukusuka kwiitoni ezingama-934,000 ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya kwiitoni ze-336,000 zangoku.Kukho imiqondiso yokuba amanqanaba e-inventri awele kwelona nqanaba lisezantsi kwiminyaka engaphezu kwama-21.Ukususela ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya ekuqaleni kuka-Matshi, uluhlu lwe-aluminiyam iyonke e-Shanghai yanda, yafikelela kwiinyanga ezilishumi eziphezulu nge-11 kaMatshi, kwaye ke uluhlu lwaqala ukuhla, kwaye uluhlu lwamva nje lwawela kwi-low low in more. ngaphezu kweminyaka emibini.Ngokubanzi, uluhlu lwe-aluminium e-Shanghai naseLondon okwangoku lukwimeko yokuncipha okuqhubekayo, kwaye ukuhla okuqhubekayo kwi-lows entsha kunenkxaso ethile engaphantsi kwexabiso le-aluminium.
Umngcipheko wokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi uyenyuka, kwaye umoya we-macro ongathandekiyo ubeka uxinzelelo kumaxabiso e-aluminium.
Kulo nyaka, uxinzelelo olukhulu luye lwanda.Ingxabano phakathi kweRashiya neUkraine eyaqala ekuqaleni konyaka iye yaqatsela.Amaxabiso ombane anyukile, nto leyo ekhokelele ekuhleni ngokuthe ngcembe kwexabiso lentengo kumazwe aphesheya kweelwandle.Ukuma kwe-Fed ngokuthe ngcembe kuye kwaba yi-hawkish.Ukungena ngoMeyi noJuni, idatha yabonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso phesheya kwezilwandle kwakuphezulu.Ngokuchasene nale mvelaphi, i-Fed Isandi sokunyusa izinga lenzala kunye nokunciphisa i-balance sheet i-hawkish ngakumbi, kwaye ukulindela ukudodobala kwehlabathi kuye kwenza buthathaka umoya wemarike, kwaye iintsimbi ezingenayo i-ferrous ziphantsi koxinzelelo.Ngokukodwa ngasekupheleni kukaJuni, i-Federal Reserve yagqiba ekubeni inyuse inzala ngamanqaku e-75 kunye nenkqubela phambili yokunyuka kwexabiso lenzala kwixesha elizayo, okwabangela ukuba uvakalelo lwemarike luwa, kwaye imarike yayinexhala malunga nomngcipheko wokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ngokuphathelele kwikamva, imeko-bume enkulu isenokungabi nathemba.Isalathiso seedola zaseMelika sisebenza kwinqanaba eliphezulu.I-CPI yamva nje yase-US ngoJuni irekhode ukonyuka okukhulu konyaka nonyaka ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-40, kodwa uBiden uthe idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ikwixesha elidlulileyo.kulindeleke ukuba abuye umva.Isimo sengqondo seFed sokulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso siya sizimisele ngakumbi nangakumbi.NgoJulayi, i-Fed inokuqhubeka nokunyusa inzala ngamanqaku angama-75.Imarike isenexhala lokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi.I-pessimism ye-macro sentiment inempembelelo enkulu kumaxabiso e-aluminium ezayo, kwaye inokuqhubeka iphantsi koxinzelelo kwixesha elifutshane.
Ukusuka kumbono osisiseko, icala lemfuno lingenile kwixesha elingekhoyo, ukusetyenziswa kwexesha elifutshane akunakufane kubone ukuphuculwa okubalulekileyo, kwaye imveliso yecala lonikezelo iyaqhubeka ukwanda.Nangona ixabiso le-aluminium liwile kumgca weendleko, akukabikho iindaba zokunciphisa imveliso.Ukuba ilahleko yezityalo ze-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic iyasilela ekubangeleni ukunyuka kwemveliso okanye ukunciphisa imveliso, ukuhla kwezinto ezisisiseko kuya kuqhubeka kuhlala kubuthathaka, kwaye amaxabiso e-aluminium aya kuqhubeka ehla, kwaye aqhubeke nokuvavanya ukuxhaswa kweendleko kuze kube yilapho ukunciphisa imveliso kuzisa entsha. umqhubi.
Ixesha lokuposa: Aug-08-2022