NgoMeyi, amaxabiso e-aluminiyam e-Shanghai abonise umkhwa wokuwa kokuqala kunye nokunyuka, inzala evulekileyo ye-aluminium yaseShanghai yahlala ikwinqanaba eliphantsi, kwaye imarike yayinomoya oqinileyo wokulinda nokubona.Njengoko ilizwe liqalisa umsebenzi kunye nemveliso, amaxabiso e-aluminiyam anokuphinda anyuke ngezigaba.Nangona kunjalo, kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, ukunikezelwa kwe-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yasekhaya kuya kunyuka kwaye imfuno ye-aluminium yaphesheya iya kuba buthathaka.Kulindeleke ukuba amaxabiso e-aluminium athwale umthwalo.
Iziseko zaphesheya zomelele
Inkxaso yexesha elifutshane yeLun Aluminium isekhona
Ukususela kwikota yesibini, kukho iziganeko ezininzi zaphesheya kwezilwandle, eziye zachaphazela amaxabiso e-aluminium.Ukuhla kwamaxabiso e-aluminium eLondon kukhulu kunokwehla kwamaxabiso e-aluminium eShanghai.
Umgaqo wolawulo-mali we-Federal Reserve "u-hawkish" utyhale idola ukuya kutsho kwiminyaka engama-20 ephezulu.Kwimeko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi jikelele, ukuqina ngokukhawuleza kwe-Fed yomgaqo-mali wemali kuye kwabeka umthunzi kwimbono yezoqoqosho zehlabathi, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium phesheya kunokuncipha kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.Ngokwahlukileyo, izinyibilikisi ze-aluminiyam zaseYurophu zinciphise imveliso ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso amandla.Imeko ye-geopolitical ewohlokayo nayo ichaphazela ukunikezelwa kwe-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic.Okwangoku, iYurophu ibeke izohlwayo ezongezelelweyo kumandla aseRashiya, kwaye kunzima ukunciphisa amaxabiso exeshana lamandla.I-aluminium yaseYurophu iya kugcina ixabiso eliphezulu kunye ne-premium ephezulu.
ILondon Metal Exchange (LME) i-electrolytic aluminium inventory ikwinqanaba eliphantsi kwiminyaka engama-20, kwaye kukho ithuba lokuba iya kuqhubeka iyancipha.Kulindeleke ukuba kukho indawo encinci yokuhla kwexesha elifutshane kumaxabiso e-aluminium.
Ubhubhani wasekhaya uyaphucuka kwaye uyachacha
Kulo nyaka, uYunnan ukhuthaze ukuphunyezwa komthamo we-aluminium eluhlaza.Ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, amashishini e-aluminium eYunnan angena kwinqanaba lokuqalisa kwakhona imveliso.Idatha ibonisa ukuba amandla okusebenza e-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yasekhaya idlula iitoni zezigidi ezingama-40.5.Nangona incopho yalo nyaka yokukhula komthamo we-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic idlulile, ngaphezulu kwe-2 yezigidi zeetoni zesakhono sokuvelisa i-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic iya kuqaliswa ukusuka ngoJuni.Idatha yeCustoms ibonisa ukuba ukususela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, i-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yelizwe lam ikwimeko elinganayo yokungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle.Xa kuthelekiswa ne-avareji ye-avareji ye-avareji yenyanga yokungenisa engaphezulu kwe-100,000 yeetoni, ukuncitshiswa kokungeniswa kwe-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic kuye kwathomalalisa uxinzelelo ekukhuleni konikezelo.Emva kukaJuni, ukunikezelwa kwenyanga ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic kuya kudlula ngokuthe ngcembe ixesha elifanayo kunyaka odlulileyo, kwaye ukunikezelwa kwexesha elide kuya kwanda.
NgoMeyi, ubhubhane eMpuma China wadamba, kwaye imarike yezothutho yaphucuka.Uluhlu olubanzi lwee-ingots ze-aluminiyam kunye neentonga zigcine izinga lokuhla kweveki ngeetoni ezingama-30,000, kodwa ukuhla bekusebuthathaka xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kwiminyaka yakutshanje.Okwangoku, idatha yokuthengiswa kwe-real estate ayilungile, kwaye kuyimfuneko ukulinda umphumo wokuphunyezwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yendawo.Ukukhula kokusetyenziswa kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminiyam kumazwe asakhasayo kuye kwakhawulezisa.Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Epreli, amandla e-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa e-China anyuke nge-130%, ukuveliswa kunye nokuthengiswa kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha kwanda ngaphezu kwe-110%, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwemveliso ye-aluminium kwanda malunga ne-30%.Njengoko ilizwe lam liye laqalisa ngokulandelelana imigaqo-nkqubo yokuzinzisa ukukhula nokukhusela impilo yabantu, imbonakalo yoqoqosho lwangaphakathi iya kuba nethemba.Kulindeleke ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba kugcinwe ukukhula okulungileyo kulo nyaka.
NgoMeyi, i-PMI yokuvelisa yelizwe lam yayingama-49.6, isengaphantsi kweyona ndawo ibalulekileyo, ngokunyuka kwenyanga nenyanga nge-2.2%, ebonisa ukuba impembelelo yobhubhane kuqoqosho iyancipha.Ixabiso elibanzi loluhlu lwe-aluminium aliphezulu, kwaye umlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa kwe-inventory ukwizinga eliphantsi kwiminyaka yamuva.Ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium yasekhaya kunokufezekisa ukukhula ngokukhawuleza, amaxabiso e-aluminium aya kukhuthazwa ngezigaba.Nangona kunjalo, phantsi komqathango wokuba ukukhula kwe-electrolytic aluminium unikezelo luzinzile, ukuba ixabiso le-aluminium e-Shanghai lifikelela ekunyukeni okukhulu, kufuneka libe nokusebenza okuzinzileyo kunye nokuqina kwe-destock.Kwaye imakethi yangoku ixhaphakile kwi-electrolytic aluminiyam phambili iinkxalabo kwi-surplus, inokunciphisa ukuphakama kwamaxabiso e-aluminiyam kwakhona.
Ngexesha elifutshane, amaxabiso e-aluminium e-Shanghai aya kutshintsha phakathi kwe-20,000 kunye ne-21,000 ye-yuan ngetoni nganye.NgoJuni, ixabiso le-21,000 yuan ngetoni ye-aluminium electrolytic iya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo kumacala amade kunye namafutshane emarike.Ngexesha eliphakathi, amaxabiso e-aluminiyam e-Shanghai awele ngaphantsi kwexesha elide lokunyuka komgca owenziwe ukususela ngo-2020, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba imarike yenkunzi ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo iya kufikelela esiphelweni.Ngokwembono yexesha elide, amazwe aphesheya anomngcipheko wokudodobala koqoqosho oluziswa kukuqiniswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yezemali.Ukuba i-terminal imfuno ye-aluminium ingena kumjikelo osezantsi, kukho umngcipheko wokuhla kwamaxabiso e-aluminium.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jun-22-2022