I-aluminiyamu yaseShanghai iqhubekile nokuguqula imeko kwiinyanga ezi-3, kwaye isazinzile kuluhlu lwe-17500-19000 yuan / ton, isoloko iguquguquka kumgca weendleko.Nangona amahemuhemu aphesheya kwe-aluminium aseRussia aqhubeka, kodwa ukuza kuthi ga ngoku akukho zindaba ziqinisekisiweyo zithintelweyo zokuhanjiswa ziye zavela, ngenxa yoko ayinayo impembelelo enkulu kumaxabiso asekhaya aseShanghai.Ukusukela nge-26 ka-Okthobha, i-aluminiyam yaseShanghai ivale i-yuan eyi-18,570 / ton, uluhlu lwe-oscillation kusenzima ukugqobhoza.
Ngokombono wam, nangona kukho iindaba zokuba i-Federal Reserve iya kuthoba izinga lokunyuka ukuya kwi-50BP ngoDisemba, kodwa i-macro ye-short-term macro akwanele ukuxhasa ixabiso le-aluminium ukuya phezulu, izinto ezisisiseko zisezona ziphambili eziphambili kwimarike. ukurhweba.Izinto ezisisiseko zangoku azitshintshanga kakhulu, imarike yenze umjikelo omtsha wolwabiwo lwamandla kunye nokunciphisa imveliso elindelweyo, kwaye imfuno isekhona ikakhulu ngexesha lonyaka, phambi kokuba eyona ndawo inkulu yomthengiso we-real estate ukubonelela ngezinto eziphambili zokusetyenziswa, ixabiso le-aluminium lilonke lilindelwe. ukuxhaswa luluhlu lweendleko zokunyuka.
Supply-side umthamo wemveliso yalungiswa kancinane.Unikezelo lweIiprofayili ze-aluminiyam, umnyango we-aluminiyam, indawo yokubeka i-solarkunye nokunye ukunyuka.
Kwimekobume jikelele yokunqongophala kwamanzi kunye nombane eYunnan, ukwenzela ukuba kuqinisekiswe ukunikezelwa kwamandla ebusika ezayo kunye nentwasahlobo ezayo, i-aluminium ye-electrolytic, i-high-energy ye-energy industry, yaqala ukungena kuluhlu lokuthintelwa kwemveliso.Okwangoku, malunga ne-1.04 yezigidi zeetoni zomthamo wemveliso ziye zayekwa, kwaye ukusuka kwi-Q4 ukuya kwi-Q1 kunyaka ozayo, umthamo oncitshisiweyo wemveliso unokwandiswa ngakumbi ukuya kwi-1.56 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe uqalise imveliso ngokuhambelana nokubuyiswa kwemvula.Ngokubanzi, imveliso yeYunnan ibalelwa kwi-2.6% kuphela yomthamo wemveliso yelizwe, enempembelelo encinci.Ukongeza, ukucuthwa kwemveliso eGuangxi naseSichuan ngokuthe ngcembe kuphinda kuqalise imveliso, ngelixa iXinjiang, iGuizhou kunye neInner Mongolia zisasebenza.U-Shanxi uphinde waqala iitoni ezingama-65,000 zesakhono esitsha kule nyanga, ngokuyinxenye yokuphelisa ilahleko eYunnan, kwaye umthamo wecala lokubonelela uyalungiswa kancinane.
Ngokwemveliso, ukuveliswa kwe-aluminium electrolytic ngoSeptemba kwakuyi-3.3395 yezigidi zeetoni, ukunyuka kwe-7.34% ngonyaka, kunye ne-4.26% ngenyanga ngenyanga.Phakathi kwabo, amaphondo aseYunnan naseSichuan aba negalelo ekunciphiseni okuphambili.Okwangoku, ngokuchacha kancinci komthamo wemveliso eSichuan kunye nokukhuthazwa okuqhubekayo komthamo omtsha wemveliso ejikeleze iSichuan, umthamo wemveliso kulindeleke ukuba unyuke kancinci ngo-Okthobha, kwaye unike ingqwalasela ekucushweni okulandelayo kwemveliso.
Icala lemfuno lilawulwa kukubuyisela ixesha lonyaka
Ngokuhla okuphezulu kweengeniso zokuthumela ngaphandle, umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminiyam ngoSeptemba ube ziitoni ezingama-496,000, wehle nge-8.22% ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, kwaye unyuke nge-0.8% unyaka nonyaka.Umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle ngokuthe ngcembe ubuyele kuluhlu oluqhelekileyo, kwaye ingqalelo yentengiso ngokuthe ngcembe yajika yaya kwimarike yabathengi basekhaya.Igolide ezilithoba zesilivere kwixesha leshumi lexesha eliphezulu, ukusetyenziswa komlambo kuphuculwe kancinci kancinci, kodwa ubhubhani wengingqi uchaphazele imfuno.
Ukusuka kwimbono yemfuno yasekhaya, icandelo le-auto lifaka isandla ekusetyenzisweni okuphambili, ukusebenza kwe-real estate kusebuthathaka, kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso elilandelayo le-aluminium elinyukayo lifuna ukujonga phambili kumandla omgaqo-nkqubo we-real estate.Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-National Bureau of Statistics, indawo yezindlu e-China yayiyi-947.67 yezigidi zeemitha zeemitha, ukuya kwi-11.41 inyanga-ngenyanga, phantsi kwe-38% ngonyaka;indawo egqityiweyo yayiyi-408.79 million square metres, inyuke nge-10.9% ngenyanga.m.kwaye yehle nge-19.9% unyaka nonyaka.Ngokutsho kwe-China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, imveliso yemoto yaseChina ngoSeptemba yayiyi-2.409 yezigidi zeeyunithi, i-0.58% ngenyanga-ngenyanga kunye ne-35.8% ngonyaka, ekulindeleke ukuba ibe nendawo yokuphucula.Ukususela ngo-Oktobha 24, i-inventory ye-electrolytic aluminiyam yentlalontle ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yayiziitoni ezingama-626,000, phantsi kweetoni ezili-10,000 ngeveki ngeveki, kwaye ukuphuma kokugcinwa kuphuculwe kakhulu.Kodwa kutshanje ibhlokhi yomthamo wezothutho kumntla-ntshona, ukufika kokuncinci, isilumkiso ukuya ekupheleni kwe-aluminium ingot egxininiswe iimpahla ezibangelwa ukuqokelela kwesiganeko.
Iimpawu zokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi zinokucothisa isantya sokunyuka kwesantya seFed, kodwa kufuneka silumke ngaphambi kokuba sifike ngoDisemba.Ukusuka kwimbono esisiseko, kwixesha elifutshane, ukunqongophala kwamandla engingqi kunye neenkxalabo zokunciphisa imveliso zisekhona, icala lemfuno lisafumaneka ikakhulu ngamaxesha onyaka, amaxabiso e-aluminiyam ayaqhekeka kwaye kusafuneka alinde ukuphucuka okubonakalayo kwidatha ye-real estate.Ngaphambi koku, sigweba ukuba amathuba okuba amaxabiso e-aluminium agcine i-oscillation trend makhulu.
Ixesha lokuposa: Oct-28-2022
