I-Aluminiyam yintsimbi esebenzisa amandla aphezulu kunye nokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni ephezulu.Ngaphantsi kwemvelaphi yemvumelwano yangoku yehlabathi malunga nokunciphisa i-carbon, kwaye phantsi kwemiqathango ye-"double carbon" yasekhaya kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo "yokusetyenziswa kwamandla ngokuphindwe kabini", imboni ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic iya kujongana notshintsho olude.Siya kuqhubeka nokumba ngokunzulu kwishishini le-aluminium ye-electrolytic, ukusuka kumgaqo-nkqubo ukuya kumashishini, ukusuka kwi-macro ukuya kwi-micro, ukusuka ekuboneleleni ukuya kwimfuno, ukuphonononga izinto eziguquguqukayo ezinokuthi zibe khona kwikhonkco nganye, kunye nokuvavanya impembelelo yabo enokwenzeka kwixabiso elizayo le-aluminium.
Ubushushu obuphezulu buyaphela, nokuba ixabiso le-aluminium lijongene "nokunciphisa umkhuhlane"
Ubushushu obuqhaqhazelis’ amazinyo ngo-Agasti bulitshayela ihlabathi, yaye iindawo ezininzi ze-Eurasia zajamelana nemozulu yobushushu obugqithiseleyo, yaye umbane walapho wawuphantsi koxinzelelo olukhulu.Phakathi kwabo, ixabiso lombane liye lanyuka kwiindawo ezininzi zeYurophu, okuye kwakhokelela ekunciphiseni enye imveliso kwishishini le-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic.Kwangaxeshanye, ummandla osemzantsi-ntshona welizwe nawo wachaphazeleka kakhulu bubushushu obuphezulu, kwaye ukwehla okukhulu kwemveliso kwenzeka kummandla weSichuan.Ngaphantsi kokuphazamiseka kwecala lokubonelela, ixabiso le-aluminium liphinde lavela malunga ne-17,000 yuan / toni phakathi kuJulayi ukuya ngaphezu kwe-19,000 yuan / toni ekupheleni kuka-Agasti.Okwangoku, imozulu eshushu iqalile ukuhla kwaye i-Fed kulindeleke ukuba inyuse inzala ngokukhawuleza.Ngaba ixabiso le-aluminiyam lijongene "nomkhuhlane"?
Sikholelwa ukuba i-short-term macro sentiment i-bearish, kwaye ukunyuka kwe-index ye-dollar yase-US kuye kwacinezela iimpahla, eziye zabeka uxinzelelo kumaxabiso e-aluminium.Kodwa kwixesha eliphakathi, ingxaki yokunqongophala kwamandla eYurophu iya kubakho ixesha elide, isikali sokunciphisa imveliso ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic iya kwandiswa ngakumbi, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwayo kwezantsi kunye nokugqibela kuya kuxhomekeka ngakumbi ekuthengeni ngaphandle.Ngamaxabiso aphantsi amandla e-China, ukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium ngaphandle kwe-aluminiyam kunenzuzo ephantsi kwexabiso eliphantsi, okwenza ukuba ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwelizwe kwikota yesithathu kunye neyesine kunokwenzeka ukugcina umkhwa omhle.Kwixesha elingekhoyo lokusetyenziswa kwendabuko yasekhaya, ukusetyenziswa kwe-terminal kubonisa ukomelela okucacileyo, kunye nokuqokelelwa kokugcinwa kumbindi womlambo kunye namakhonkco asezantsi.Emva kokuba iqondo lokushisa eliphezulu lihlehlisiwe, ukwakhiwa komlambo osezantsi kulindeleke ukuba kuqalise kwakhona ngokukhawuleza, ukuqhuba ukuchithwa kwe-inventory.Ukuphuculwa okuqhubekayo kwezinto ezisisiseko kwenza iShanghai Aluminiyam yomelele ngakumbi.Ukuba imvakalelo enkulu iyaphucuka, iya kuba namandla okubuyisela amandla.Emva kwexesha lokusetyenziswa kwe-"Golden Nine Silver Ten", ukuncipha kwemfuno kunye noxinzelelo olubalaseleyo lokubonelela, ixabiso le-aluminium liya kuphinda libhekane noxinzelelo olukhulu lokulungiswa.
Ukuxhaswa kweendleko kubonakala, uxinzelelo lwe-pullback lubuthathaka kunoJuni
NgoJuni, i-Federal Reserve yamemezela ukuphakamisa inzala ngamanqaku angama-75.Emva kwesi sibhengezo, imarike yaqala ukurhweba ukulindela ukudodobala koqoqosho, okubangela ukuhla okukhulu kwexabiso le-aluminium kumjikelezo oqhubekayo kulo nyaka.Ixabiso lehle ukusuka malunga ne-21,000 yuan/toni phakathi kuJuni ukuya kwi-17,000 yuan phakathi kuJulayi./t kufutshane.Uloyiko lokudodobala kwemfuno yexesha elizayo, kudityaniswe namaxhala malunga nokuncipha kweziseko zasekhaya, kube negalelo ekwehleni kokugqibela.
Emva kweentetho ze-hawkish zeveki ephelileyo nguSihlalo we-Federal Reserve, imarike yaphinda yathengisa ngokulindelekileyo kwinqanaba le-75 yenqanaba lenzala, kwaye amaxabiso e-aluminium awela malunga ne-yuan eyi-1,000 kwiintsuku ezintathu, kwakhona ejongene noxinzelelo olukhulu lokulungiswa.Sikholelwa ukuba uxinzelelo olu lungiso luya kuba buthathaka kakhulu kunoJuni: kwelinye icala, inzuzo yoshishino lwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic ngoJuni yayingaphezu kwe-3,000 yuan / ton, nokuba kumbono wemfuno yokubiyela yesityalo se-aluminium. ngokwayo, okanye ishishini elinyukayo kumxholo wemfuno ebuthathaka.Ngokombono wenzuzo ephezulu engazinzanga, iinkampani ze-aluminium zijongene nomngcipheko wokunciphisa inzuzo.Okukhona iphezulu inzuzo, kokukhona ukuwa okukhulu, kwaye ingeniso yeshishini langoku yehle yaya kutsho kuma-400 yuan/toni, ngoko ke kukho indawo encinane yokuqhubeka nokufowuna.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ixabiso langoku le-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic ixhaswa ngokucacileyo.Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic phakathi kuJuni yayimalunga ne-18,100 yuan / ton, kwaye iindleko zazisamalunga ne-17,900 yuan / ton ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, kunye noshintsho oluncinci kakhulu.Kwaye kwixesha elide, kukho indawo encinci ye-alumina, i-anode ebhakiweyo ngaphambili kunye neendleko zombane zokuwa, ezigcina iindleko zemveliso ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic kwindawo ephezulu ixesha elide, isenza inkxaso kwixabiso langoku le-aluminium. .
Amaxabiso amandla aphesheya aphezulu, kwaye ukwehla kwemveliso kuya kwanda ngakumbi
Iindleko zamandla aphesheya zihlala ziphezulu, kwaye ukucuthwa kwemveliso kuya kuqhubeka nokwanda.Ngokuhlalutywa kwesakhiwo samandla eYurophu nase-United States, kunokubonwa ukuba amandla ahlaziyekayo, irhasi yendalo, amalahle, amandla enyukliya kunye neminye imithombo yamandla yenza umlinganiselo omkhulu.Ngokungafaniyo ne-United States, iYurophu ithembele ngakumbi ekuthengisweni ngaphandle kwegesi yendalo namalahle.Ngo-2021, ukusetyenziswa kwegesi yendalo yaseYurophu kuya kuba malunga ne-480 billion cubic metres, kwaye phantse i-40% yokusetyenziswa kwegesi yendalo ithunyelwa eRashiya.Ngo-2022, ungquzulwano phakathi kweRashiya neUkraine lukhokelele ekuphazamisekeni kokunikezelwa kwerhasi yendalo eRashiya, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekunyukeni okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso egesi yendalo eYurophu, kwaye iYurophu kwafuneka ijonge ezinye iindlela kumandla aseRashiya kwihlabathi liphela, nto leyo eyatyhalela phambili ngokungangqalanga. anyuse amaxabiso erhasi yendalo yehlabathi.Ukuchatshazelwa ngamaxabiso aphezulu wamandla, izityalo ezimbini ze-aluminiyam zaseMntla Melika ziye zanciphisa imveliso, kunye nesikali se-304,000 yeetoni zokunciphisa imveliso.Ukuba nokwenzeka kokunciphisa imveliso akusayi kukhutshwa kwixesha elizayo.
Ukongeza, amaqondo obushushu aphezulu kunye nembalela kulo nyaka ziye zabangela isibetho esikhulu kwisakhiwo samandla saseYurophu.Umgangatho wamanzi wemilambo emininzi yaseYurophu yehle kakhulu, nto leyo eye yachaphazela kakhulu ukusebenza kombane owenziwe ngamanzi.Ukongeza, ukunqongophala kwamanzi kukwachaphazela ukusebenza kakuhle kokupholisa kwemizi-mveliso yamandla enyukliya, kwaye umoya oshushu ukwanciphisa ukuveliswa kwamandla omoya, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima kwimizi-mveliso yamandla enyukliya kunye neeinjini zomoya ukusebenza.Oku kukwandise ngakumbi umsantsa wobonelelo lwamandla eYurophu, nto leyo ekhokelele ngokuthe ngqo ekuvaleni amashishini amaninzi asebenzisa amandla amaninzi.Ukuqwalasela ubuthathaka besakhiwo samandla saseYurophu sangoku, sikholelwa ukuba isikali sokunciphisa imveliso ye-aluminium electrolytic yaseYurophu iya kwandiswa ngakumbi kulo nyaka.
Ukujonga emva kwiinguqu kumthamo wemveliso eYurophu, ukususela kwintlekele yezemali ngo-2008, ukuncipha kwemveliso eyongezelelekileyo eYurophu ngaphandle kweRashiya kudlule iitoni ze-1.5 yezigidi (ngaphandle kokunciphisa imveliso kwintlekele yamandla ka-2021).Kukho izinto ezininzi zokunciphisa imveliso, kodwa kuhlalutyo lokugqibela yindleko yeendleko: umzekelo, emva kokuqhambuka kwengxaki yezemali ngo-2008, ixabiso le-aluminium electrolytic eYurophu lawela ngaphantsi komgca weendleko, owabangela ukuba i-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic yaseYurophu ihlaziywe. ukwehla kwemveliso enkulu kwizityalo ze-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yaseYurophu;Uphando lwexabiso lombane oluchasene nenkxaso-mali lwenzeka e-United Kingdom nakweminye imimandla, nto leyo ekhokelele ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso ombane kunye nokwehliswa kwemveliso yezityalo ze-aluminiyam zendawo.Urhulumente wase-UK uceba ukuqala kwi-2013, efuna ukuba iijeneretha zamandla zihlawule imali eyongezelelweyo yokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni.La manyathelo anyuse iindleko zokusetyenziswa kombane eYurophu, okubangele uninzi lwe-electrolyticaluminiyam ababoneleli ngeprofayile eyamisa imveliso kwasekuqaleni kwaye ayizange iphinde iqalise imveliso.
Ukususela ekubeni ingxaki yamandla yavela eYurophu kulo nyaka uphelileyo, iindleko zombane wendawo ziye zahlala ziphezulu.Ngaphantsi kweempembelelo zengxabano yase-Ukraine-Russia kunye nemozulu embi, ixabiso legesi yendalo kunye nombane eYurophu lifikelele kwirekhodi eliphezulu.Ukuba i-avareji yeendleko zombane wendawo ibalwa kwi-650 euros kwi-MWh nganye, i-kilowatt-yure nganye yombane ilingana ne-RMB 4.5/kW·h.Ukusetyenziswa kwamandla ngetoni nganye yemveliso ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic eYurophu malunga ne-15,500 kWh.Ngokwalolu balo, iindleko zokuvelisa ngetoni ye-aluminium isondele kwi-70,000 yuan ngetoni.Izityalo ze-aluminium ngaphandle kwamaxabiso ombane wexesha elide azikwazi ukufikelela kuzo zonke, kwaye isongelo lokunciphisa imveliso ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic iyaqhubeka nokwandisa.Ukusukela ngo-2021, amandla okuvelisa i-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic eYurophu ancitshiswe nge-1.326 yezigidi zeetoni.Siqikelela ukuba emva kokungena ekwindla, ingxaki yokunqongophala kwamandla eYurophu ayinakusombululwa ngokufanelekileyo, kwaye kukho umngcipheko wokunciphisa ngakumbi ukuveliswa kwe-electrolytic aluminium.iitoni okanye njalo.Ukuthathela ingqalelo ukunganyaniseki okugqwesileyo kobonelelo eYurophu, kuya kuba nzima ukubuyisela ixesha elide emva kokunqunyulwa kwemveliso.
Iimpawu zamandla zibalasele, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuneenzuzo zeendleko
Imarike ngokubanzi ikholelwa ukuba iintsimbi ezingenayo i-ferrous zineempawu eziqinileyo zezimali ukongeza kwiimpawu zemveliso.Sikholelwa ukuba i-aluminiyam yahlukile kwezinye iintsimbi kwaye ineempawu zamandla ezinamandla, ezihlala zingahoywa yimarike.Kuthatha i-13,500 kW h ukuvelisa itoni enye ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic, esebenzisa owona mbane uphezulu ngetoni phakathi kwazo zonke iintsimbi ezingenayo i-ferrous.Ukongeza, umbane wayo uthatha malunga ne-34% -40% yeendleko zizonke, ngoko ke ikwabizwa ngokuba "ngumbane oqinileyo welizwe".I-1 kWh yombane idinga ukutya malunga ne-400 grams yamalahle asemgangathweni ngokomndilili, kwaye ukuveliswa kwetoni ye-1 ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic kufuneka idle umyinge we-5-5.5 yeetoni zamalahle ashushu.Iindleko zamalahle kwiindleko zombane wasekhaya zibalelwa malunga ne-70-75% yeendleko zokuvelisa umbane.Ngaphambi kokuba amaxabiso angalawulwa, amaxabiso ekamva lamalahle kunye namaxabiso e-aluminium yaseShanghai abonisa ukuhambelana okuphezulu.
Okwangoku, ngenxa yonikezelo oluzinzileyo kunye nolawulo lomgaqo-nkqubo, ixabiso lamalahle e-thermal lasekhaya linomohluko omkhulu wexabiso kunye nexabiso leendawo ezisetyenziswa phesheya kwezilwandle.Ixabiso le-FOB ye-6,000 kcal i-NAR yamalahle ashushu e-Newcastle, e-Australia yi-US $ 438.4 / itoni, ixabiso le-FOB lamalahle ashisayo ePuerto Bolivar, eColombia yi-US $ 360 / ton, kunye nexabiso lamalahle ashisayo kwichweba laseQinhuangdao yi-US $ 190.54 / ton. , ixabiso le-FOB lamalahle ashushu kwi-Port Baltic yaseRashiya (i-Baltic) yi-110 yeedola zase-US / itoni, kunye nexabiso le-FOB ye-6000 kcal i-NAR yamalahle e-thermal kwi-Far East (Vostochny) yi-158.5 yeedola zase-US / toni.Iindawo ezinexabiso eliphantsi ngaphandle kommandla ziphezulu kakhulu kunezasekhaya.Amaxabiso erhasi yendalo eYurophu nase-United States aphezulu kunamaxabiso amalahle.Ke ngoko, i-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yasekhaya inenzuzo eyomeleleyo yeendleko zamandla, eya kuqhubeka ibalasele kumxholo wamaxabiso akhoyo aphezulu amandla ehlabathi.
Ngenxa yomehluko omkhulu kwiirhafu zokuthumela ngaphandle kweemveliso ezahlukeneyo ze-aluminium e-China, inzuzo yeendleko ze-aluminium ingots ayibonakali kwinkqubo yokuthumela ngaphandle, kodwa ibonakaliswe kwinkqubo elandelayo ye-aluminium.Ngokweenkcukacha ezithile, i-China yathumela iitoni ezingama-652,100 ze-aluminium engasebenziyo kunye neemveliso ze-aluminium ngoJulayi 2022, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-39.1%;ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kweyongezelekayo ukusuka kuJanuwari ukuya kuJulayi kube yi-4.1606 yezigidi zeetoni, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka ngama-34.9%.Ngokungabikho kweenguqu ezibalulekileyo kwimfuno yaphesheya, ukunyuka kwemveliso yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kulindeleke ukuba kuhlale kuphezulu.
Ukusetyenziswa kunokomelela kancinci, igolide, isilivere elithoba kunye neshumi kunokulindelwa
Ukususela ngoJulayi ukuya ku-Agasti kulo nyaka, ukusetyenziswa kwesiqhelo ngaphandle kwexesha kudibene nemozulu embi.I-Sichuan, iChongqing, i-Anhui, i-Jiangsu kunye neminye imimandla iye yafumana izithintelo zamandla kunye nemveliso, okubangele ukuvalwa kweefektri kwiindawo ezininzi, kodwa ukusetyenziswa akubi kakhulu kwidatha.Okokuqala, ngokwesantya sokusebenza kwamashishini asebenza ezantsi, ibiyi-66.5% ekuqaleni kukaJulayi kunye ne-65.4% ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, ukuhla kwepesenti ye-1.1.Izinga lokusebenza lehle ngeepesenti ze-3.6 ngexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo.Ngokombono wamanqanaba e-inventory, kuphela iitoni ze-4,000 ze-aluminium ingots zigcinwe kwi-Agasti yonke, kwaye iitoni ze-52,000 zazingekho kwisitoreji ngoJulayi-Agasti.Ngo-Agasti, ukugcinwa okuqokelelweyo kweentonga ze-aluminium kwakuyi-2,600 yeetoni, kwaye ukususela ngoJulayi ukuya ku-Agasti, ukugcinwa kwezinto eziqokelelweyo ze-aluminium kwakuyi-11,300 tons.Ngoko ke, ukususela ngoJulayi ukuya ku-Agasti, imeko yokuchithwa kwempahla yagcinwa ngokupheleleyo, kwaye iitoni ezingama-6,600 kuphela zaqokelelwa ngo-Agasti, okubonisa ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwangoku kusenokuqina okuqinileyo.Ukusuka kwindawo yokujonga isiphelo, ukuchuma kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha kunye nomoya kunye nokuveliswa kwamandla elanga kugcinwa, kwaye ukutsalwa kokusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium kuya kuba unyaka wonke.Ukuhla ngokubanzi kwe-real estate akukatshintshi.Ukuthotha kwemozulu eshushu kuya kunceda indawo yokwakha ukuba iqalise umsebenzi, yaye ukumiselwa kwengxowa-mali yoncedo “yesakhiwo esiqinisekisiweyo” esizibhiliyoni ezingama-200 nako kuya kunceda ekuphuculeni ikhonkco lokugqitywa.Ke ngoko, sikholelwa ukuba ixesha lokusetyenziswa kwe-"Golden Nine Silver Ten" lisenokulindelwa.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-09-2022