Abathathi-nxaxheba beMarike: Ukuphazamiseka kwecala lonikezelo kuzisa inkxaso ethile kumaxabiso e-aluminiyam

Kungekudala, i-index ye-dollar yase-US iqhubekile ukunyuka, kodwa i-market-non-ferrous market ayizange iwe ngokukhawuleza, kwaye umkhwa wokwahlulahlula kubonakala ngakumbi.Ukusukela ekupheleni korhwebo ngenjikalanga ye-24 ka-Agasti, iindlela ze-Shanghai Aluminium kunye ne-Shanghai Nickel kwicandelo elingeyo-ferrous zahluka.Phakathi kwabo, i-aluminium ikusasa le-aluminium yaqhubeka inyuka, ivala i-2.66%, ibeka i-high-and-half-high;Ikamva lenickel laseShanghai lehla yonke indlela, lavala i-2.03% ngosuku.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuba isikhokelo samva nje se-macro sesinyithi esingeyontsimbi silinganiselwe.Nangona amagosa e-Fed amva nje anesimo sengqondo se-hawkish kunye ne-index ye-dollar yase-US iqhubekile isomelela, ayizange ikhuphe kakhulu i-trend ye-non-ferrous metal, kwaye i-trend yeentlobo ezinxulumene nazo zibuyele kwizinto ezisisiseko.UWu Haode, intloko yeChangjiang Futures Guangzhou Branch, ukholelwa ukuba zimbini izizathu eziphambili:
Okokuqala, umjikelo wangaphambili wokuhla okubukhali kumaxabiso esinyithi angeyontsimbi uye wazalisekisa ulindelo lokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi phantsi komjikelo wokunyuka kwezinga le-Fed.Ukususela ngoJulayi, isimo sengqondo sokunyusa inzala ye-Fed ye-hawkish siye sancipha, kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US kuye kwajika kancinane, kwaye ukulindela kweemarike zokunyuka kwexabiso lenzala kuye kwalinganisa.Nangona i-index ye-dollar yase-US isenamandla, ukulindela ukunyuka kwexabiso lenzala akunakuvuselela i-index ye-dollar yase-US ukuqhubeka nokunyuka ngokukhawuleza.Ngoko ke, impembelelo yokuqiniswa kwexesha elifutshane le-dollar yase-US kwiintsimbi ezingenayo i-ferrous iyancipha kancinci, oko kukuthi, isinyithi esingenayo i-ferrous "i-deensitized" kwi-dollar yase-US ngezigaba.
Okwesibini, ukunyuka kwamandla okuqhubela phambili kweemarike zetsimbi ezingenayo i-ferrous ukususela ngo-Agasti kuye kwavela ikakhulu kwimarike yasekhaya.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenkxaso yemigaqo-nkqubo yasekhaya, ukulindela kweemarike kuphuculwe;kwelinye icala, amaqondo obushushu aphezulu kwiindawo ezininzi aqhubeleka ekhokelela ekunqongophelweni kobonelelo lombane, okubangela ukwehla kwemveliso ekupheleni kokunyibilika, kunye nokutyhala amaxabiso esinyithi ukuba aphinde anyuke.Ngoko ke, kunokubonwa ukuba i-disk yangaphakathi yomelele kunediski yangaphandle, kwaye ukungafani phakathi kwamandla angaphakathi nangaphandle kwamaxabiso e-aluminium kubonakala ngokukodwa.
Ngokuka-Hou Yahui, umhlalutyi oyintloko we-Shenyin Wanguo Futures Nonferrous Metals, u-Agasti usekwixesha lethutyana le-Fed's macro interest rate cycle cycle, kwaye impembelelo ye-macro factor iyancipha.Amaxabiso esinyithi asandul 'i-non-ferrous ikakhulu abonisa iziseko zeentlobo ngokwazo.Umzekelo, ubhedu kunye ne-zinc ezineziseko ezomeleleyo zikwimeko eqhubekayo yokubuyela umva.Njengoko icala lokubonelela likhuthazwa ziindaba zokucuthwa kwemveliso ngaxeshanye ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe, i-aluminiyam isandula ukuphuka kwakhona.Kwiintlobo ezineziseko ezibuthathaka, ezifana ne-nickel, emva kokuphindaphinda kwinqanaba langaphambili, uxinzelelo olungentla luya kubonakala ngakumbi.
Okwangoku, imarike yensimbi engeyiyo i-ferrous ingene kwixesha lokudibanisa, kwaye impembelelo yezinto ezisisiseko zeentlobo ezahlukeneyo ziye zaphinda zanda.Ngokomzekelo, abavelisi beprofayili ye-zinc kunye ne-aluminium e-china baye bachaphazeleka kwiingxaki zamandla eYurophu, kwaye umngcipheko wokunciphisa imveliso uye wanda, ngelixa ukuveliswa kwe-aluminium yasekhaya kuye kwachaphazeleka kukuncitshiswa kwamandla asekhaya.Umngcipheko wokucuthwa kwemveliso unyukile.Ngaphezu koko, iintsimbi ezingenayo i-ferrous ziqhubeka nokuchatshazelwa yi-inventories ephantsi kunye ne-elastic supply low.Xa uqoqosho lwehlabathi luseninzi, ukuphazamiseka kwecandelo lokubonelela kulula ukutsala ingqalelo yentengiso. ”Umseki wexesha elizayo umhlalutyi Yang Lina uthe.
Nangona kunjalo, u-Yang Lina ukhumbuze ukuba imarike kufuneka inikele ingqalelo ukuba intlanganiso yonyaka yeebhanki eziphambili zehlabathi e-Jackson Hole, eyaziwa ngokuba yi "barometer" yamanqaku okuguqula umgaqo-nkqubo, iya kubanjwa ukususela ngo-Agasti 25 ukuya kwi-27, kunye noSihlalo weFed uPowell. ebanjwe ngoLwesihlanu 22 ixesha Beijing.khomba ukuthetha ngenkangeleko yezoqoqosho.Ngelo xesha, uPowell uya kuchaza ngokubanzi ukusebenza kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nemilinganiselo yomgaqo-mali.Kulindeleke ukuba kugxininise ukuba uqoqosho lwase-US kunye nemarike yezemisebenzi isenamandla, kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphezulu ngendlela engamkelekanga, kwaye umgaqo-mali wezemali usafuna ukuqiniswa ukuphendula, kwaye isantya sokunyusa inzala siya kuqhubeka.Ilungiselelwe idatha yezoqoqosho.Ulwazi olubhengezwe kwintlanganiso luya kuba nempembelelo enkulu kwimarike.Uthe isingqi sorhwebo sangoku siyatshintshana phakathi kokuqina koqoqosho, ukuhla kwamandla emali, kunye nokulindela ukudodobala koqoqosho.Ukujonga emva, kunokufunyanwa ukuba ukusebenza kweemarike zetsimbi ezingenayo i-ferrous kusengcono kancinane kunezinye ii-asethi kwindawo efanayo.
Ukujonga ababoneleli beprofayili ye-aluminium, abahlalutyi bakholelwa ukuba ukwanda kwamva nje kokuphazamiseka kwecala lonikezelo lwangaphakathi nangaphandle kuzise inkxaso ecacileyo yexesha elifutshane.U-Yang Lina uthe okwangoku, icala lokubonelela nge-aluminiyam yasekhaya lichaphazeleka kukuncitshiswa kwamandla obushushu obuphezulu, kwaye umthamo wemveliso uyaqhubeka ukuncipha.EYurophu, amandla okuvelisa i-aluminium nawo anqunyulwe kwakhona ngenxa yeengxaki zamandla.Kwicala lemfuno, iinkampani ezilungisayo zikwachatshazelwa kukuncitshiswa kwamandla kwaye izinga lokusebenza lehlile.Ngokuqhubeka kwexesha elingekhoyo lokusetyenziswa kunye nokuwohloka kwemekobume yangaphandle, imeko yolungelelwaniso lweshishini lokucubungula ibuthathaka, kwaye ukubuyiswa kokusetyenziswa kwesiphelo kuya kuthatha ixesha kunye namanyathelo okuvuselela ngakumbi.Ngokumalunga noluhlu lweempahla, uluhlu lwentlalo luqokelele ixabiso elincinci lamaxabiso angalunganga e-aluminium.
Ngokukodwa, uHou Yahui uxelele iintatheli ukuba ngaphezu kokunciphisa imveliso ebangelwa yingxaki yamandla, abasebenzi baseHydro's Sunndal aluminium plant eNorway basanda kuqalisa uqhankqalazo, kwaye isityalo se-aluminium siya kumisa ukuveliswa malunga ne-20% kwiiveki ezine zokuqala.Okwangoku, umthamo opheleleyo wemveliso ye-Sunndal Aluminium Plant yi-390,000 yeetoni / ngonyaka, kwaye uqhankqalazo lubandakanya malunga neetoni ze-80,000 / ngonyaka.
Kwasekhaya, nge-22 ka-Agasti, iimfuno zokucuthwa kwamandla kwiPhondo laseSichuan zaphuculwa kwakhona, kwaye onke amashishini e-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic kwiphondo ayeka ukuveliswa.Ngokwezibalo, kukho malunga ne-1 yezigidi zeetoni ze-electrolytic aluminium yokusebenza kwamandla kwiPhondo laseSichuan, kwaye amanye amashishini aqalise ukunciphisa umthwalo kwaye avumele umbane ebantwini ukususela phakathi kukaJulayi.Emva kuka-Agasti, imeko yonikezelo lwamandla yaba mbi ngakumbi, kwaye yonke imveliso ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic kwingingqi ivaliwe.IChongqing, ekwakumzantsi-ntshona, ikwakwimeko enzima kubonelelo lwamandla ngenxa yobushushu obuphezulu bemozulu.Kuyaqondwa ukuba izityalo ezimbini ze-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic ziye zachaphazeleka, ezibandakanya amandla okuvelisa malunga neetoni ezingama-30,000.Uthe ngenxa yezinto ezichazwe ngasentla zokubonelela, kukho utshintsho oluthile kwipatheni ekhululekile yeziseko ze-aluminium.Ngo-Agasti, uxinzelelo olugqithisileyo kwicala lokubonelela nge-aluminium ye-electrolytic yanqunyanyiswa okwethutyana, eyakha inkxaso ethile yamaxabiso kwixesha elifutshane.
"Ixesha elingakanani ukusebenza okuqinileyo kwamaxabiso e-aluminiyam kunokuhlala ngokuyintloko kuxhomekeke kwixesha logwayimbo lwezityalo ze-aluminiyam phesheya kunye nokuba isikali sokunciphisa imveliso ngenxa yeengxaki zamandla siya kwandiswa ngakumbi."U-Yang Lina uthe ixesha elide unikezelo olunxulumene nemfuno luqhubeka luqina, impembelelo kumaxabiso e-aluminium iya kuba.Impembelelo enkulu kwibhalansi yobonelelo kunye nemfuno.
U-Hou Yahui uthe ekupheleni kweeholide zasehlotyeni, imozulu eqhubekayo yobushushu obuphezulu kummandla osemazantsi-ntshona kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele esiphelweni, kodwa kuya kuthatha ixesha ukuze kuthotywe ingxaki yamandla, kunye nenkqubo yokuvelisa i-electrolytic. i-aluminiyam imisela ukuba ukuqaliswa kwakhona kweseli ye-electrolytic kuya kuthatha ixesha.Uqikelela ukuba emva kokunikezelwa kombane wamashishini e-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic kwiPhondo laseSichuan kuqinisekisiwe, kulindeleke ukuba yonke imveliso yokuvelisa iya kuqaliswa kwakhona ubuncinane malunga nenyanga.
UWu Haode ukholelwa ukuba imakethi ye-aluminium kufuneka inikele ingqalelo kwezi zinto zilandelayo: Ngokubhekiselele kunikezelo kunye nemfuno, ukunqunyulwa kwamandla eSichuan kukhokelela ngokuthe ngqo ekunciphiseni i-1 yezigidi zeetoni zomthamo wokuvelisa kunye nokulibaziseka kweetoni ezingama-70,000 zomthamo omtsha wokuvelisa. .Ukuba impembelelo yokuvalwa ihlala inyanga enye, imveliso ye-aluminium ingaba phezulu njenge-7.5%.iitoni.Kwicala lemfuno, phantsi kwemigaqo-nkqubo encomekayo yasekhaya, inkxaso yetyala kunye neminye imiba, kukho ukuphucuka okuncinci kusetyenziso olulindelekileyo, kwaye ngokufika kwexesha lencochoyi ye "Golden Nine Silver Ten", kuya kubakho ukwanda kwemfuno. .Ngokubanzi, iziseko zobonelelo nge-aluminiyam kunye nemfuno zinokushwankathelwa ngolu hlobo: umda wokubonelela uyancipha, umda wemfuno uyanyuka, kwaye ibhalansi yobonelelo kunye nemfuno unyaka wonke iyaphucuka.
Ngokwe-inventri, uluhlu lwangoku lwe-aluminium ye-LME lungaphantsi kweetoni ezingama-300,000, uluhlu lwangaphambili lwe-aluminium lungaphantsi kweetoni ezingama-200,000, irisithi yokugcina impahla ingaphantsi kwe-100,000 yeetoni, kunye ne-inventory ye-electrolytic yasekhaya ye-aluminium yentlalo ingaphantsi kwe-700,000.“Imakethi ibisoloko isithi i-2022 ngunyaka apho i-electrolytic aluminiyam ifakwa kwimveliso, kwaye oku kunjalo.Nangona kunjalo, ukuba sibheka ukunciphisa umthamo wokuvelisa i-aluminium kunyaka ozayo kunye nakwixesha elizayo, amandla okusebenza kwe-aluminium electrolytic ahlala esondela 'kwi-ceiling', kwaye imfuno ihlala izinzile.Kwimeko yokukhula, nokuba kukho ingxaki yempahla kwi-aluminiyam, okanye nokuba imarike iqalisile ukurhweba, oku kufuna ingqalelo. ”Uthe.
Ngokubanzi, uWu Haode ukholelwa ukuba ixabiso le-aluminium liya kuba nethemba "kwigolide elithoba isilivere elineshumi", kwaye ukuphakama okuphezulu kubonakala kwi-19,500-20,000 yuan / ton.Ngokumalunga nokuba ixabiso le-aluminiyam liya kuphinda libuyele ngamandla okanye lingasebenzi kwixesha elizayo, kufuneka sinikele ingqalelo kuphuculo olukhulu losetyenziso kunye negumbi lokuphazamiseka kobonelelo.

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Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-02-2022